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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still